Did the fear of #swineflu outbreak occur in our country in 2009-10? And does swine flu causes hundreds of deaths even today? So, shall we also care about swine flu along with Corona? #swinefludeaths. For #Marathi readers Marathi version is also posted.
Swine flu pandemic has created global panic and anxiety in 2009-10, just as the #corona virus caused today.
Initially it was reported everywhere in 2009-10 that due to Swine flu millions of people would be killed in the coming short period, and the serious consequences would be far greater in countries like #India.
If we study the cases of swine flu in 2009-10 and their deaths, it seems that the way in which panic was created initially; nothing like that happened at the end. It is important to mention here that you still have hundreds as well more than thousands death annually as mentioned in the table.
It was predicted that the death toll due to swine flu would be 3.4%. But, fortunately in the end the mortality rate was very low, only 0.02%. Swine flu outbreak of 2009 in the USA, has killed 12469 people and nearly 2000 died in India. Thereafter regular deaths are reported in both count
So why the atmosphere of panic and anxiety is created at the beginning of such epidemic?
It is important to keep in mind that in the early stages of the epidemic we give more importance to the more serious cases, so that the infected but mild or non-symptomatic cases are ignored and not investigated. So, the record is not taken. So, the mortality rate due to epidemic appears much higher initially than it actually becomes. But in the end when we start to look at the whole matter, it turns out that death rate is actually very low and not as predicted initially.
In any such epidemics, most of the conversation is focused solely on the death toll. Due to this, the initial mortality rate of swine flu was very high at that time. As more cases of swine flu began to unfold, the mortality rate observed at the beginning showed a much lower decline.
Therefore, we would expect that because of the careful steps taken by the government from time to time in this Corona Epidemic we would suffer less and we will get out of Corona and swine flu as soon as possible. For this, I think that we should carefully follow the guidelines given by the government and make constant efforts to increase our immune system.
Also, we must learn to look for reliable information from trusted sources, learn to care without fear, maintain a happy environment at home, and so that the immune system of ourselves, our relatives, friends and community should be increased.
Let us hope that the #Corona will not sit like the swine flu virus has been sitting on our neck forever and it will be vanished forever.
Dr. Indrajit Khandekar (MBBS.MD)
Forensic Medicine Specialist.
#References:
1) National Centre for Disease Control, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare. Govt of India. https://ncdc.gov.in/index4.php?lang=1&level=0&linkid=119&lid=276
2) http://164.100.24.220/loksabhaquestions/annex/173/AU3422.pdf
3) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5094123/
4) Estimating age-specific cumulative incidence for the 2009 influenza pandemic: a meta-analysis of A(H1N1)pdm09 serological studies from 19 countries. Van Kerkhove MD, Hirve S, Koukounari A, Mounts AW, H1N1pdm serology working group. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2013 Sep; 7(5):872-86.
5) WHO. Global Alert and Response. What is post pandemic? 10 August 2010. Available from: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/post_pandemic/en
6) Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2018-19 Influenza Seasons https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fflu%2Fabout%2Fdisease%2Fus_flu-related_deaths.htm
